15% was made effective on April 1, 2010, and its
effects will begin to register from the second
quarter of the year.
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
The macroeconomic figures published in the first
quarter of 2010 confirm in general terms that the
global recovery is gaining ground. However,
uncertainty still persists regarding its sustainability,
basically in advanced economies, in which growth
continues to depend on stimulus packages, and
significant financial risks remain. The exit strategies
from the unconventional policies are also an
additional risk factor for these economies. However,
the fact that the inflationary expectations remain
anchored and that the core inflation continues at
historically low levels should allow central banks in
these countries prolonged room for maneuver to
maintain official rates at current levels.
In the United States, following quarterly GDP
growth of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, the indicators
of economic activity and, to a lesser extent, those of
demand, remain positive. The labor market is still
weak, but it is beginning to show signs of recovery,
with the unemployment rate falling. Core inflation
continues the downward trend begun at the start of
the year, which has given the Federal Reserve some
room for maneuver.
In contrast, in Europe the level of recovery is
considerably more moderate than in the United
Interest rates
(Quarterly averages)
Official ECB rate
Euribor 3 months
Euribor 1 year
Spain 10-year bond
USA 10-year bond
USA Federal rates
TIIE (Mexico)
States. The weak GDP performance in the euro zone
in the fourth quarter of last year confirms a scenario
of decoupling with the American economy. However,
the indicators of economic activity, particularly in the
industrial sector, have been more positive in the first
months of 2010.
The Mexican economy is benefiting from the
recovery in external demand in the United States, as
this is the main destination of its exports. This
favorable situation is expected to continue
throughout 2010.
Finally, economic activity in South America
continues to strengthen as a result of the increase in
foreign and domestic demand. Nevertheless, some
risks remain, in particular doubts about the
consolidation of recovery in the world economy, the
challenge of harmonizing the withdrawal of monetary
and fiscal stimuli and possible distortions that could
be generated by the electoral processes in various
countries this year.
With regard to year-end exchange rates, the
performance of currencies with an impact on the
Group’s financial statements has been variable. The
Mexican and Colombian pesos have registered strong
year-on-year appreciations (12.6% and 31.4%
respectively). The Chilean peso and the Peruvian sol
have also appreciated. However, the Venezuelan
bolivar fell by 50.6%. There were slight depreciations
in the U.S. dollar (1.3%) and the Argentinean peso.
The final impact of this is slightly positive on the
balance sheet and the volume of business.
2010 2009
1Q 4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.92
0.66 0.72 0.87 1.31 2.01
1.22 1.24 1.34 1.67 2.22
3.95 3.83 3.92 4.16 4.17
3.70 3.45 3.50 3.30 2.70
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
4.92 4.93 4.90 5.89 8.00
| 1Q10 |
5
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